Survivor Nicaragua: Predictions and Random Thoughts For The Season Finale

Heading into tonight's Season Finale, I have a few thoughts on the way Survivor Nicaragua is going to end, the Season as a whole, and what I have heard rumoured as the next season. As I've said for most of this season, I honestly feel that this is right up there with Survivor: Thailand as the worst seasons ever, but I still can't stop watching this show. It's my guilty pleasure. Honestly, other than NaOnka, who is memorable from this season? Who would you want to see on an All-Star edition? And NaOnka is memorable for all of the wrong reasons...as I mentioned earlier in one of my recaps, unlike other Survivor villains like Russell or Coach Wade, she was not good television.

Let's take a moment to look at our Final Five contestants, shall we?

Holly - I can't see Holly winning this game. I do see her having a shot at making the Final Tribal Council. While she didn't rub people the wrong way in terms of turning on them like Chase or Sash did, I don't see her game play as strong enough to win in the eyes of the jury. And I don't think this jury is going to be as bitter as the last two seasons, which saw Russell get denied TWO million dollar prizes because the jury was angry. Plus, if Dan ends up on the jury (fingers crossed), there's one vote against her based on the shoe incident alone.

Chase - The Pro Race Car Jackman may appear to have a heart of gold, but still turned on everyone he formed an alliance with up to this point. On top of that, he keeps telling people he's taking them on Reward Challenges only to turn back on that. I can see him winning, but only if he's up there against Sash and Holly.

Sash - I can see Sash swaying the jury with his explanation of two huge points in the game for him: 1) getting Marty to give him the Idol just before the merge, and 2) Staying alive as a "free agent" after his strong alliance of 4 crumbled in mere minutes after Brenda got blindsided and NaOnka and Kelly quit. I give him credit for playing a good game without really pissing anyone off, and if he was in the Final 3 against Chase and Holly, I'd have a hard time voting against him if I was on the Jury.

Fabio - If he can survive the next two Tribal Councils (which means likely winning Immunity for both), I think he wins the game hands-down. He played a great social game, didn't make any enemies (other than NaOnka, who stole HIS socks!), played well as a team member as well as individually, and stayed calm and level-headed throughout the game. And if he comes out at the Final Tribal Council or Reunion Show and says "Look, I'm not a moron. That was all an act" (which I still think is possible, but not probable), it'll be a great Survivor moment.

Dan - No chance to win. He did nothing. I'm actually angry he's even still part of the game going into Finale night, and if you would have offered to bet me in the first few weeks that I would see Dan on Finale Night I would have lost my house. I have nothing more to say about Dan except that my 9-year-old son noticed in the last episode that Dan was wearing Silly Bandz on his wrist. No joke, look at the screen capture below from the Loved Ones challenge on Wednesday.

I have to re-iterate how much I hate the concept of a Final Three at the end instead of a Final Two. Before they introduced this, the winner was always decided by having a majority of the Jury votes, not a plurality. With 9 Jury members, I find it disheartening that if, for instance, the vote was 4-3-2, the winner of Survivor: Nicaragua would have garnered less than 50% of the votes. That’s just not right.

One final thing, and it’s regarding the next season of Survivor, so skip this part if you don’t want to (potentially) be spoiled in terms of what the Season is going to be. I had read rumours that the next season was going to be Boston Rob vs. Russell, meaning two tribes of new contestants (not former players or All-Stars), led by Rob and Russell, as arguably the two best players went head-to-head. As well, there was supposed to be the introduction of a new twist called Redemption Island, which has been used in some international editions of Survivor.

Let me explain how Redemption Island works. After the merge, once the castaways are voted out, they go to Redemption Island, where they await the next voted out castaway. Once that next person arrives, the two of them compete in a one-on-one challenge where the winners stays on Redemption Island to await the next castaway and another challenge, and the loser is voted out for good. This continues until there are a certain number of players left, and the winner of the final Redemption Island challenge is allowed BACK into the game.

I hate this concept for a number of reasons, but I won’t even rant yet since it’s just a rumour.

Now, having said all of that…I didn’t believe that’s what the next season of Survivor was going to be. I didn’t believe the rumours…until I read Jeff Probst’s blog on Thursday where he said that the announcement about the next season of Survivor would be EPIC. Now I’m not sure. We’ll find out later tonight.

Tonight’s recap of the episode will likely be up at some point during the Reunion Show, and then I will update it about an hour after the Reunion show ends with any additional thoughts coming out of the third hour.

Quick-fire predictions for the Reunion Show: Shannon will get booed, NaOnka will get booed harder, Purple Kelly will giggle and shrug, Brenda will look amazing, Marty’s hair will not be crazy, Jane and Holly will both look totally different, Jeff will re-iterate his disgust at the quitters, Jane will invoke the honour of being from North Carolina, and at one point, Benry will let out a whoop.

See you in a few hours.